How to Win the Kansas Governor's Race

A Plan, a Man and a Party. Remember those three, because they are the three keys to beating Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius in November 2006. The posturing for the race started in January, Doug Mays was the first candidate in the race last week, and now it is time to start thinking about the issues the race should focus on and how to win.

A Plan

The first key is having a plan, a real plan, for how to make Kansas a better place. I don't mean just choosing a menu of hot button issues, I mean really developing a coherent vision of how to make the state a better place. This is key because it is what is going to differentiate a winning candidate from the current Governor. This winter when faced with serious problems in education, Sebelius didn't propose any plan to improve education in Kansas, in fact she didn't even really propose a BUDGET for education. Look at the past three years, is there an issue that the Governor has taken the lead on? No, the governor doesn't have a plan, she doesn't know what to do.

Governor Sebelius knows a list of problems, but doesn't have a clue how to solve them. Look at education, look at the funding mess, look at the tax increase coming next session and ask yourself why isn't the Governor doing any thing? For three years Kansans have heard about the mess of a budget in Topeka and a smart candidate would be putting the blame on our do nothing Governor.

A smart candidate would be screaming that from the roof tops right now, but before you can do that you have to really know what you are going to do, why you are going to do it, and who it will help. Without a real set of issues and solutions any Republican candidate is going to fall back on "Republican leadership", "support for education" and "support for business". I don't have any idea what those three things mean or how they apply to being Governor of Kansas, and if I don't know, neither do voters, and if voters don't understand how electing you will help their lives, you will lose.

The next Governor needs to be talking about issues that really matter: how to reshape education for the 21st century, how Kansas can compete and excel economically, how we can grow new jobs, new opportunities and new businesses. How a rich society can help people get the health care they need regardless of income, without turning to failed socialist programs. These are real issues that affect the quality of life and the quality of our state, and they are the issues our candidate should own.

A Man

I don't mean to be sexist, I just mean to rhyme. But the fact is that any Republican candidate will be the underdog in this race and if they intend to win they are going to have to fight. They are going to have to be tough, not rude, not crass, but tough. They are going to have to clearly explain what they want to do and why in a concise, easy to understand manner. They are going to have to lead.

Right now I don't know who is going to take this role. I could speculate, but that would be a waste of time. The list is the usual suspects, state wide office holders and people everyone has know for years secretly look into the mirror and call themselves Governor. I have heard a lot of whispers, and a lot of people thinking about it, everybody seems to be planning to make up their mind next month, that was January, now in May everybody is going to make up their mind next month.

We need someone who knows why they should be Governor, someone with some passion for the job, someone who can really electrify people. We don't need the usual suspects, if you have been whispering about it for months and not made up your mind, you are not qualified to be Governor, you don't have the leadership it takes and you should not enter the race. If you are ready, declare and tell us all why you declared, speak from your heart, and speak to the people who will elect you in November, not the pols worried about August.

A Party

Whoever wants to run has a big task in front of them, build a viable Republican ground game in every county in Kansas by January. If you can't do that, you may be done before you start. Sebelius has a lot of money, she has the support of every Democrat in Kansas right now and most people couldn't give you one reason they shouldn't re-elect her. That is the failing of a broken Republican Party.

A winning candidate doesn't need to spend time unifying the party. They don't need to kiss the ass of every busy body low rent "leader" in Kansas. They need issues and a compelling personal message that will draw all factions to them. Real solutions to real problems generate real momentum and I think you will be surprised at how quick "moderates" and "conservatives" line up behind a winning candidate. A real message about real life that affects people from different segments of the party will really do a lot to strengthen the Party. Real discussion with real leaders who motivate other people will get out that message.

If any candidate can pull together all three of these elements I think they will be able to connect with voters and win. They will be able to raise enough money, not as much as the Governor, but enough to win. They will change the terms of the race, Sebelius won't be able to deal with it and once she is off balance she will fall in November.

Timothy Burger

Infosys: Sold

I finally mad emy decision and sold my shares of Infosys yesterday morning, just in time to see the sock go up $3.50 the rest of the day, Doh!

I still think it was a fine time to sell, at the current price the company has to grow sales at more than 30% annually for the next five years. That is 30% growth in competition with all of the other Indian IT firms plus US firms like Accenture and IBM who have both created huge divisions in India, Accenture now employs more than 10,000 in India alone. That is 30% growth when a lot of US companies are having second thoughts about outsourcing based on their initial experiences. Could Infosys grow at more than 30% annually for the next five years, sure, do I want to count on it, no.

The other factor that made me decide to sell is the fact that Infosys will be offering $1 billion in new ADS this week. The US shares trade at about a 40% premium to the same shares in India. While a small premium is expected, 40%? It is a move that will probably turn out well for Infosys, the company is buying local shares, converting to ADS and reselling them at a higher profit. So all of a sudden Infosys has a market arbitrage division, okay. I tend to think the US shares are a little pricey, and it would make sense to me if the gap between the US and Indian shares narrowed. Will it happen? I don't know, but I do know that the idea makes me nervous and that I don't want to be part of it right now.

Could Infosys announce great results this quarter and make me look like a fool? Sure, in fact there is a good chance of that, but I still don't think the economics of their business justifies the current price, so I am off to something I think is a better investment right now, but if Infosys disappoints this quarter and the stock tumbles like it did last quarter, I could be interested in this one again.

Timothy Burger