Disclaimer: Dennis Moore is not a good representative for the Kansas 3rd Congressional District and should be replaced. I was involved in the Johnson County Republican Party's Dennis Moore Watch Project during from 2002 until this week, I know Dennis Moore's record, and that is why I believe the opportunity Kansas Republicans wasted this election cycle is especially disappointing.
Regardless, the explanations for Kris Kobach's loss have begun, and I want to throw in my two cents.
First we must understand that Kobach's loss was much different and much worse than any previous Republican loss against Dennis Moore. Here are
numbers for the previous three KS-3 Congressional races (Johnson County only):
2000
BUSH & CHENEY REPUBLICAN......129,965........59.6%
PHILL KLINE REPUBLICAN............111,184........52.1%
DENNIS MOORE DEMOCRATIC.........95,831........44.9%
2002
ADAM TAFF R................................88,146........52.89%
DENNIS MOORE D..........................73,581........44.15%
2004
BUSH AND CHENEY R...................153,718......61.10%
SAMUEL D BROWNBACK R............157,992.....64.84%
KRIS KOBACH R.............................119,156.....48.02%
DENNIS MOORE D..........................124,550.....50.20%
In the end, Kris Kobach lost to Dennis Moore 44%-55%, an eleven point loss, significantly larger than the 2002, 2000 races or even Vince Snowbarger's 1998 race. Possibly the most telling statistic is that more than 33,000 people, in Johnson County alone, chose to vote for President Bush, and not vote for Kris Kobach, 15,000 more than 2000.
There are three reasons that I have read and or heard in the past couple of days for Kobach's loss: first, Kobach was too conservative. Second, the Republican Party was divided, and third, Moore's campaign unfairly ran ads alleging Kobach is a racist. All three have some validity, but all three miss the point to some extent.
Is Kobach too conservative? Maybe, but that isn't why he lost. True, Kobach took some pretty far out positions including an aggressive anti-immigrant stance that probably pushed away more voter than it brought in. However, Bush won 61% of the vote in '04 and Bush is kind of conservative, even more telling, Brownback got almost 65% of the vote, he is very conservative. I find it hard to believe that someone would vote against Kobach because he is too conservative, and then vote for Brownback. Sure, Taff did better than Kline or Kobach, but strong numbers for Bush and Brownback seem to indicate JoCo voters are willing to vote for conservatives, if they are the right conservatives.
Is the Republican Party too divided? Yes, but while that provides some explanation of Moore's success, it does not explain why he won Johnson County for the first time, nor does it explain his increased margin of victory this year.
In 2000, only two years after State Party Chairman David Miller challenged sitting governor Bill Graves in the most divisive Kansas election in recent memory, Kline, possibly the best known and most polarizing figure in Kansas politics, ran a tough primary against moderate Greg Musil. However, during the general election the party came together enough for Kline to give Moore an extremely close race and to win in JoCo with 52% of the vote. That is 4% more of the vote than Kobach got in '04 even though President Bush did better here in '04 than in '00. So while the party is divided, it was just as divided in 2000, but the race was much closer.
Is it because Moore called Kobach a racist? Maybe, but Moore called Kline all kinds of nasty things. I can't find copies of Moore's 2000 campaign materials, but trust me, they were nasty.
It doesn't help matters that Kobach was hired by FAIR, widely perceived as a racist, anti-immigrant group, DURING THE CAMPAIGN. Aligning yourself with groups most people perceive as racist is a bad idea any time, but an especially bad idea while you are running for Congress.
The point is that Kline and Taff both beat Moore by similar margins, and Bush and Brownback are winning by huge margins, so I think it is safe to look for a Kobach specific cause.
Kris Kobach ran an absolutely vicious primary campaign, worse than any of the previous primary campaigns, and remarkably one-sided. He called Adam Taff "ultra-liberal", he had Kansans for Life send out a letter saying that people who vote for Taff have the bloody water of abortionists on their hands, even though Taff supported restrictions on abortion. Kobach called the President's immigration plan a "liberal amnesty plan", Kobach sent out a letter from his wife that said Adam Taff made her think of her miscarried baby when he criticized Kobach, Kobach basically insulted everyone who was even a little less conservative than he was. That made a lot of people angry. I don't think most Republicans expect to be compared to Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy, or told that their views are ultra-liberal, they tend to take offense to that kind of thing and they don't tend to forget it.
During both the primary and general election Kris Kobach acted like a child, insulting people, calling anything he disagreed with "absurd" calling his opponent "utterly ignorant". People couldn't believe the things he did during public debates, his behavior was shocking. He insisted on calling State Representative Patricia Lightner "Trish" in public and to her face. He just didn't understand how adults act in public, he didn't show any kind of respect for his opponents and people took notice. People who were not involved in the primary were taken aback by his behavior during his debates with Dennis Moore, people want a Congressman who knows how to act civil.
A lot of people voted for Kobach because they believed in part of his message, or because they believe in the conservative movement, a lot of people voted for the Republican Party, a lot of people know Moore is a bad representative. But a lot of people couldn't get past the insults during the primary, they remembered how Kobach talked to and about people like them, Adam Taff, Jan Meyers, George Bush and Dennis Hastert and just couldn't vote for him. Kris Kobach divided the Republican Party and then made no effort to bring it together in the general.
The big three reasons are part of why Kobach lost, but the real reason is Kris Kobach and how he ran his campaign. It isn't fair to hide behind division, or to blame good people who just couldn't get on board with the way Kobach was running his race. This loss is not one to lay at the feet of the Republican Party, the blame shouldn't go to the party's moderates, or the good, hardworking people who really believe in the conservative cause. Moderates don't deserve to be called RINOs and good conservatives shouldn't have their views and candidates marginalized because they are "too conservative for the district" because of this race.
The blame for this loss belongs to one man, Kris Kobach. His conduct, his words, his actions are the reason Dennis Moore will be our Congressman for the next two years, and a Republican will not.
This race was not the end of opposition to Dennis Moore, but it will make it much more difficult to beat him. It will take an extremely strong candidate who can draw support from the entire party, and from unaffiliated voters. This race will probably mean that the RNC will be very reluctant to spend more money fighting Dennis Moore. This should be a wake up call for all Republicans, we must do better.
I have talked with a lot of people about this race, and I look forward to reading what my readers, both those who agree and those who do not, have to say in the comment section. This is the time to build a stronger Republican party, and I hope this helps us look at our weaknesses and fix them.
Timothy Burger
