Kerry vs. Biotech

Ever wonder who loses if Kerry wins? Two of the biggest losers would be the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. A president Kerry results in the elimination of profits in pharma and biotech, ending the incentive for innovation, and eventually virtually eliminating innovation in medicine, literally ending the improvement of quality of life that has driven human progress since the birth of modern medicine.

So how do you make money on this? The easiest way for most people is by buying the Ishare biotech fund IBB. Just take a look at how biotech has traded vs. The expectation that Bush wins the election, the two are virtually tied to each other. Since early August Bush has been on a tear, after his post convention bounce Tradesports members currently show Bush at 62.5 and IBB is trading just under 70, still well below it's April peak, but up nicely from it's early August lows.

A Bush win continues to allow biotech to profit, and since there is more venture capital money floating around since the peak of the bubble, you would expect any decent biotech idea to attract funding. Since biotech really makes money on big innovation, the outlook is great, as long as pharmaceutical firms stay in business.

If Kerry's campaign continues to flounder, buying now could make money in IBB or any of the big biotech firms, AMGN, DNA, BIIB, etc. However, Kerry will probably rally in the next two months before Bush wins on Nov. 2, a Kerry rally should kill biotech, and provide a nice opportunity to buy firms that will rally on a Bush win.

Read These

There are a few sites I feel I must recommend and provide links for.

One of the best sites ever, run by a good friend of mine:

www.gjwalberg.com

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I am also currently Vice-Chairman of the Johnson County Young Republicans

I used to work for UBS, one of the biggest and best investment banks in the world

A Couple of Thoughts

Less than 54 days left before the fall campaign is over, this is what I am thinking:

Bush over Kerry by two to five points in the popular vote. Anti-Iraq/War on Terror rhetoric was a loser for Dean in the Democrat primaries. If the Dems won't bite on that, the general public isn't either. Kerry has been all over the map and has no plan for the future. Bush has dealt with a lot in the past four years, most notably 9-11 and the end of one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history, he has dealt with those challenges well and I think the American people will realize that.

Here in Kansas, Dennis Moore over Kris Kobach by five to ten points. Kobach holds views that are so far to the right most Republicans are uncomfortable with him. Moore will count on that, and that is why he is underestimating Kobach. Poll numbers will scare Moore into action sometime in early October, once voters learn more about Kobach they will give Moore a nice victory and ensure that he holds the KS-3 seat for as long as he would like.

Democrats will pick up at least one Legislative seat in Johnson County. Kobach supported divisive candidates at all levels during the August primary. The party is divided, the state party doesn't have the money to save us, the governor has the money to help her troops, Dems pick up one, setting up interesting Republican leadership races in Nov. and Jan.